While Rahul Gandhi has attacked BJP with 'Gabbar Singh Tax' and 'Shah-zada' jibes over GST and Jay Shah's business firm controversy respectively, the ruling party has been cautious in its approach in the run-up to Gujarat polls.
HIGHLIGHTS
Congress has been out of power in Gujarat for more than two decades.Defeat for BJP in Gujarat will weaken its position in states that go to polls in 2018.Winning Gujarat election is a prestige issue for PM Modi and Amit Shah.
For both the BJP and the Congress, the upcoming two-phase Assembly election in Gujarat is different from the earlier polls in some respects. The election is witnessing an intense tussle between the ruling BJP and the main Opposition Congress.
While the BJP would like to retain power at the least and maintain the status quo in terms of the seats it had won in 2012, the Congress seems to be more interested in queering the pitch for the ruling party. No wonder then, the BJP is maintaining a continuity in its approach, while the Congress has stepped on the gas and is accelerating on top gear from the word go.
The Gujarat election can be compared with the game of cricket. The BJP appears to be batting very cautiously. It is playing conventionally as in the five-day version of the game.
On the other hand, the Congress is playing a T-20 version. It is not just aggressive, but perhaps also reckless. It seems to be in a hurry.
DO-OR-DIE FOR BJP
The difference in approach of the two rival parties is reflected in the approach of their leaderships. For the BJP, Gujarat election is a matter of prestige because Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah come from that state.
Modi also was also the chief minister of the state for more than 12 years while Shah was Minister of State in his government before they moved to Delhi. Stakes are very high for the Modi-Shah duo.
Besides prestige, the duo has a lot to lose if it gets defeated in the Gujarat polls. The defeat will have an immediate impact on the Assembly elections in eight states in 2018, significant among them being Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Besides aiming at snatching power from the Congress in Karnataka, the BJP also hopes to retain governance of the other three states.
But a defeat in Gujarat will weaken BJP's position in all these states. It will also have a bearing on the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the Assembly election in Odisha, which goes to polls at around the same time. The BJP's invincibility will get demolished.
Ever since the BJP came to power at the Centre after the 2014 Lok Sabha election, it has lost just two major Assembly polls - Delhi and Bihar. Otherwise, it has won all other states, such as Maharashtra, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Uttarakhand and Assam. Now, even Bihar is back in the BJP's kitty after Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) broke ranks with RJD and Congress.
Due to the high risks involved, the BJP cannot afford to lose Gujarat. Hence, it is taking cautious steps. The party does not want to be seen as irresponsible or arrogant lest it boomerangs on it.
SIXER OR DUCK FOR CONGRESS
As against the BJP, the Congress finds itself in an unenviable position. After being in power at the Centre for two consecutive terms and 10 years, the Congress suffered its most humiliating defeat ever in the 2014 Lok Sabha election.
It also lost one state after the other such as Maharashtra, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Assam since then. It won only in Punjab.
The Congress came to power briefly in Bihar but only as the most junior partner. It could not capture power in states like Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Goa either. The party is not in a comfortable position in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka too, where it is in power for now.
In the wake of such prospects, the Congress will shrink to its narrowest-ever position by the end of 2018.
In such a situation, the grand old party has not much to lose. This, perhaps, has led it to launch an unprecedented offensive against the BJP in Gujarat.
It seems to be Congress' trial-and-error method. If the strategy clicks, the party will have everything to gain.
A win in Gujarat will inject the much-needed booster dose in the party. There would no looking back from here. It may impact the future Assembly elections and also the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Even if it loses Gujarat, the stakes of the Congress are not too high. A defeat will not be something new to the party. As it is, it is contesting the Gujarat election from a weak position.
SHANKERSINH VAGHELA QUIT CONGRESS IN JULY
The Congress has not been in power in Gujarat for more than two decades. It is not in a strong position even now. Its most senior leaderShankersinh Vaghela quit the party ahead of the August Rajya Sabha election along with 13 party MLAs. Two of them joined the BJP.
In such a scenario, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi can afford to adopt an aggressive posture. In fact, this is the most suitable strategy for the party.
No wonder, Rahul Gandhi made the "Gabbar Singh Tax" remark to deride Goods and Services Tax (GST) and alleged that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had "ruined the economy of the entire country".
The Congress has also gone on the offensive on social media. Its "Vikas gando thayo chhe (development has gone crazy) was an instant hit on Twitter and Facebook with people adding memes, caricatures, photographs and videos to mock the claims of the BJP government's 'Gujarat model of development'.
Of late, Rahul's Twitter handle itself saw a flurry of posts leading people to question the brain behind it. In a response, the Nehru-Gandhi scion posted a video to mock such people.
